(Vienna) The announcement by Brussels of the end of the ban imposed by five EU states on the import of Ukrainian cereals inflamed tempers, provoking unilateral embargoes to which Kyiv responded on Monday by announcing to file a complaint before the World Trade Organization (WTO) against three European countries.
Bans: where and why?
Since the launch of the Russian offensive which hinders access to the Black Sea, Kyiv’s neighboring countries have become essential for the transit of Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflowers to Africa and the Middle East.
These countries faced an influx of grain following the lifting of EU tariffs in May 2022, but some remained stuck on their soil due to their favorable tariffs and logistical problems.
Faced with the saturation of silos and the collapse of local prices, several of the countries concerned therefore decreed a unilateral embargo in the spring. Brussels then formally approved the restrictions, on a temporary basis and subject to maintaining the passage of cereals to other destinations.
But the agreement expired on Friday and the Commission decided not to renew it, citing “the disappearance of distortions” and the improvement of transport conditions. Kyiv promised in exchange measures to better control its export flows.
Hungary immediately responded, announcing an extension of restrictions to 24 products instead of four, followed by Poland where the populist right-wing government made it “a fundamental question” one month before parliamentary elections.
Ditto for Slovakia, which decreed an embargo until the end of the year, while Romania said it was ready to do the same for a period of one month if it did not obtain the necessary guarantees of Kyiv.
Their watchword is to “protect farmers”.
Kyiv’s response
In retaliation, Ukraine announced on Monday a complaint before the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the three countries that extended the embargo: Poland, Slovakia and Hungary.
“It is crucial for us to establish that individual Member States cannot ban the import of Ukrainian goods,” explained Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.
Ukrainian exporters “continue to suffer significant losses” linked to these bans, she argued, hoping to find a compromise before legal action before the WTO, which would take “a very long time”.
The spirit does not seem to be in harmony: as of Monday evening, Warsaw announced that it would maintain the embargo despite the referral to the WTO.
“We maintain our position, we believe it is right,” said the Polish government spokesperson. The complaint “does not impress us,” he added.
European Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski said he was “surprised that Kyiv is taking this route” given “the considerable efforts made by member states” and the fact that its export volumes via the EU have significantly increased in recent months despite the restrictions.
“I remain optimistic that we can resolve these differences through amicable dialogue, even if this complaint complicates the situation,” he declared, believing that “a breakdown in the unity of the EU” would not benefit Ukraine.
The Bulgarian exception
Bulgaria stands apart under the leadership of its pro-European government and in the name of “solidarity with Ukraine”.
It stands out from its neighbors because it has large sunflower oil producers who have complained of a serious shortage of seeds and high prices.
The powerful grain producers are back on track: they blocked bridges and crossroads throughout the country on Monday.
Romania, the main exit door
Since Russia’s abandonment in July of the agreement which allowed Ukraine to export tens of millions of tonnes of cereals directly through the Black Sea, land and river corridors crossing Europe have gained momentum. .
Poland transports them by road to the Baltic Sea. But it is via Romania that the largest quantities are transported.
At the heart of the system, the Romanian port of Constanta in the Black Sea, from where products arrive by train, by road or by boat after a journey on the Danube, which marks the border with Ukraine.
This road is in the sights of Moscow, which has increased bombings against the river ports of Reni and Izmaïl in recent weeks.
Faced with bottlenecks, Kyiv and Bucharest signed an agreement in August to try to relieve traffic congestion.
Ultimately, Romania should see 60% of total Ukrainian grain exports pass through its territory.
If Russia continues to dominate the world market, Ukrainian farmers are resisting, with production estimated at 20.5 million tonnes of wheat for 2023-24, compared to 33 million in 2021-22, before the Russian invasion, according to the cabinet specialized in Agritel.
