(London) The contrast is hard to ignore. The curtain has just fallen on a conservative convention with a heated atmosphere, and now the Liberals, who have been badly beaten in the polls, are converging on London for their caucus meeting. The discussions will be frank, it is reported, and Justin Trudeau will have to prove that he is still in control, according to an expert. Overview.
Plunge in the polls
“The caucus culture of getting sucked into stupid decisions” will ensure that there “won’t be any sparks at the meeting this week, but there should be,” wrote Monday in a post from blog that looks like a challenge to curator Michelle Rempel Garner. We’ll see if the rustling in the hallway will prove him right. What is certain, however, is that there is nervousness in the Liberal ranks due to the summer slump in the polls, notes Jeremy Ghio, former Liberal strategist. “Bad polls make for unhappy MPs. It loosens tongues. Justin Trudeau will have to prove to them that he is still the man for the job,” he believes.
“A wonderful leader”
Tongues were loosened recently in reports from the Toronto Star and CBC – anonymous, languages. Without wanting to dwell on these confidences, Brenda Shanahan, who chairs the national caucus, argues that “these people who make comments outside the caucus know very well that Mr. Trudeau is a formidable leader”. Are there within the delegation many “Nervous Nellies”, as Jean Chrétien called his deputies worried about losing their constituency? “They heard the frustrations of their constituents this summer (…) on the cost of living and access to housing (…), but everyone is behind our leader,” says Mme Shanahan.
“All indicators are red”
Even if the collaboration agreement between the Liberals and the New Democrats holds until 2025, which the Prime Minister seems to want, the Conservatives’ skyrocketing rise in the polls should be a warning signal, believes specialist Philippe J. Fournier. “All the indicators are red. Among the Liberals, we argue that Justin Trudeau has come from behind against Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole, but here, it’s different, because we’re talking about the approval of the government and the leader,” explains the creator of the 338Canada aggregator. “The Liberals have the luxury of time, but if the election took place tomorrow, my model gives an almost majority or majority (Conservative) government,” he adds.
Forget the “bad guy” Poilievre
Conservative activists gathered at a conference in Quebec last weekend provided new ammunition to the Liberals. There was the abortive attempt to put to the vote a resolution to cut funding at Radio-Canada, the adoption of a resolution governing gender transition for minors. According to Jeremy Ghio, we must resist the temptation to be distracted: “Among the Liberals, it seems that we are in the mode: ‘Pierre Poilievre is bad, and I have a good record.’ But it is not with the record that you will obtain the confidence of Canadians for a fourth term. It’s with a plan for what’s to come – economic uncertainty and the housing crisis. »
An announcement about housing
We saw it in the National Assembly from day one of the start of the parliamentary term: the housing issue puts governments in the hot seat. That of Justin Trudeau will not escape it, and it is with an announcement on housing that the Prime Minister will kick off the caucus meeting on Wednesday, alongside the minister responsible for the file, Sean Fraser. Because yes, Justin Trudeau ended up returning to the country, having been stuck for two days in New Delhi due to a technical problem with the government plane.