(Moscow) North Korean leader Kim Jong-un arrived in Russia on Tuesday for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin which could, according to Washington, lead to an arms sale agreement to support the Russian offensive in Ukraine.
The two men must notably talk about “sensitive subjects” in the coming days, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov.
Departing Pyongyang on Sunday evening aboard an armored train, Kim Jong-un is making his first trip abroad since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. He had already met Mr. Putin during his previous trip abroad, to Vladivostok in 2019.
PHOTO ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok, Russia, April 25, 2019.
Mr. Kim is expected to meet him in the coming days somewhere in the Russian Far East. Moscow did not specify the date or location of the meeting.
The Russian authorities, however, released images showing the North Korean number one received by a delegation and an honor guard at the Khassan station, located near the border.
According to the governor of the Primorye region, Oleg Kojemiako, Kim Jong-un spoke during this stop with Russian Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Alexander Kozlov.
“A visit of this level is a good message for the development (…) of direct contacts with our colleagues from North Korea,” commented Mr. Kojemiako on Telegram.
Vladimir Putin, who is currently in Vladivostok for an annual economic forum ending Wednesday, was not asked about the North Korean leader’s trip, despite a lengthy question-and-answer session.
The Russian president only said that he would soon go to the Vostochny cosmodrome, a thousand kilometers as the crow flies from Vladivostok, refusing to specify what he planned to do there.
Armaments
His spokesperson, Dmitri Peskov, told Russian media that MM. Putin and Kim were going to discuss “sensitive” subjects without paying attention to American “warnings”.
Washington fears that Russia will obtain weapons for its military operations in Ukraine from North Korea, itself under sanctions because of its nuclear and missile development programs.
“In building our relations with our neighbors, including North Korea, the important thing for us is the interests of our countries and not the warnings of Washington,” launched Mr. Peskov.
According to the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo, at least 20 hours are needed to go by rail from Pyongyang to Vladivostok, based on the assumption that Mr. Kim’s special, armored and very heavy train travels about 60 km /h.
He is accompanied by senior military officials, including his Minister of Defense and executives from the arms production apparatus and the space technology sector, according to official media.
According to experts, the meeting between MM. Putin and Kim could focus on an arms deal, as Mr. Putin would seek to acquire anti-tank shells and missiles.
Historical links
For Siemon T. Wezeman of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “it is entirely credible that North Korea has significant stocks of munitions compatible with the artillery systems used by Russian forces.”
Such an agreement would constitute “an unequivocal violation” of UN resolutions sanctioning North Korea, believes the expert.
For its part, Pyongyang is reportedly seeking cutting-edge technology for nuclear-powered satellites and submarines, as well as food aid.
Washington derided this meeting, seeing it as a sign that Mr. Putin was “begging” for help in carrying out his operations in Ukraine. For Paris, Mr. Kim’s current trip is the visible “mark” of Moscow’s isolation.
Russia and North Korea have historical ties and Kim Jong-un has repeatedly expressed support for the Russians in their offensive in Ukraine.
For Andrei Lankov of Seoul’s Kookmin University, a Putin-Kim summit is part of Moscow’s “friendly diplomatic blackmail” against Seoul, because Russia wants to dissuade the South Koreans from supplying military equipment to Ukraine .
South Korea is a major arms exporter. It has sold some to Poland, an ally of Kyiv, but its policy is never to supply any to parties directly engaged in armed conflicts.
PHOTO ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Vladimir Putin and Kim Kim Jong-il, father and predecessor of Kim Jong-un, on August 23, 2002 in Vladivostok, Russia.
What we know about ties between North Korea and Russia
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who rarely leaves his country, is in Russia for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin that Washington says could lead to an arms sales deal in support of the Russian invasion in Ukraine.
Pyongyang, subject to international sanctions for its nuclear weapons program, has regularly denied supplying weapons to Russia, but could soon change this position, according to experts.
What can North Korea offer Russia?
At the beginning of September, Washington assured that Pyongyang, despite its denials, had supplied infantry rockets and missiles to Russia in 2022, intended for the private paramilitary group Wagner.
For Joseph Dempsey, researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Moscow would be mainly interested in artillery shells.
“North Korea likely holds the largest stockpiles of Soviet-era artillery shells, which could be used to replenish Russian stocks depleted by the war in Ukraine,” he told AFP.
Whatever the outcome of the summit, “the new Cold War structure between South Korea, the United States and Japan against North Korea, China and Russia will strengthen,” Yang told AFP Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
What does North Korea want in return?
For analysts, Russia has everything North Korea needs.
“Russia is a food exporting country, a fertilizer exporter, an energy exporter,” notes Cho Han-bum, researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.
Pyongyang could also, he said, seek the transfer of “key technologies, know-how and manufacturing capacity to advance North Korea’s arms industry.”
A UN report in 2022 highlighted the role of a North Korean diplomat in Moscow in procuring ballistic missile technology and even attempting to obtain three tons of steel for the North Korean submarine program .
Pyongyang could also gain diplomatic benefits from a possible agreement that would send a message to China.
“Since the Cold War, North Korea has always practiced ‘pendulum diplomacy’ between China and the Soviet Union,” observes Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha University.
What have the previous summits brought?
A historic ally of North Korea, Russia has been a major supporter of this reclusive country since its creation 75 years ago.
But the Soviet Union cut funding when Pyongyang began seeking reconciliation with Seoul in the 1980s. And its fall in 1991 hit North Korea hard.
In 2000, the first summit between the Russian Federation and North Korea resulted in a joint declaration for economic cooperation and diplomatic exchanges.
The signing of an agreement between Mr. Putin and Kim Jong-il, who died in 2011, Mr. Kim’s father and predecessor, revives relations.
Kim Jong-un, then seeking support in the face of the nuclear impasse with Washington, made his first official visit to Russia in 2019. No joint press release was published.
But Mr. Kim strongly supports the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including, according to Washington, by supplying rockets and missiles.
In July, Mr. Putin praised North Korea for its “firm support for the special military operation against Ukraine” in a speech read in Pyongyang by his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
What would a Pyongyang-Moscow agreement mean?
The White House warned Pyongyang last week against selling arms to Russia in support of its war in Ukraine. This will not improve North Korea’s “image” and “they will pay the price in the international community,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said.
Disregarding the warning, Mr. Kim left for Russia on Sunday, according to KCNA, the official North Korean news agency. He was accompanied by key military officials, including those responsible for arms production and space technology.
Cheong Seong-chang, a researcher at the Sejong Institute, told AFP that if Pyongyang steps up military cooperation with Moscow, “there would be an increased likelihood of protracted conflict in Ukraine.”
As a reward for its assistance to Moscow, “the development of North Korea’s nuclear submarines and reconnaissance satellites could advance at a faster pace.”
If Moscow and Pyongyang do indeed engage in arms shipments, their location will be “the responsibility of the international community”. If they are shells, Pyongyang “could transport them by train to Moscow,” he notes.
